Htet Nadi (NSS) - Oct 3

Veteran political analyst Dr. Aye Maung analyzed through NP News that President U Min Aung Hlaing’s planned visit to Malaysia in October represents a positive approach toward advancing the national interests of both countries. He added that the visit could also open up opportunities for Myanmar to strengthen its diplomatic engagement with ASEAN.

According to a report by Malaysia's state-owned news agency on September 30, a Malaysian government spokesperson stated that President U Min Aung Hlaing is among the foreign leaders scheduled to visit Kuala Lumpur this coming October.

This visit emerges amidst ongoing discussions between the two countries regarding the repatriation of illegal migrants; notably, nearly 1,500 Myanmar nationals in Malaysia were repatriated via three government vessels on September 29. 

Furthermore, plans are reportedly underway for a second phase of repatriation involving another 3,524 Myanmar nationals, and Malaysian authorities have indicated that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim intends to hold discussions with the Myanmar side.

This visit, undertaken at the invitation of Malaysian Prime Minister, is seen as primarily aimed at addressing Malaysia's domestic immigration crisis and the issue of illegal migrants.

Regarding the visit, Dr. Aye Maung remarked, "When looking at the Malaysian Prime Minister's stance, it is clearly about his country's own interests. Rather than focusing on Myanmar's participation in ASEAN, the move appears to be an attempt to find a way out of his country's domestic crisis concerning the issue of immigrants. It seems the Malaysian Prime Minister is strongly convinced that engaging specially with Myanmar is essential to resolving that problem."

The Myanmar government is willing to assist in resolving this crisis faced by Malaysia; plans are in place to systematically repatriate undocumented Myanmar nationals currently detained in Malaysia, following a verification process involving the respective embassies and immigration authorities of both countries.

“The President appears willing to help ease Malaysia’s difficulties, or in other words, reduce their burden. In that regard, he is likely to accept Myanmar nationals who are currently detained in Malaysia and are undocumented migrants, provided they can provide credible evidence of their Myanmar citizenship. This repatriation process could take place in multiple phases, with the first, second, and third batches being accepted in succession,” he said.

In addition, Dr. Aye Maung stated that this visit could lead to a softening of ASEAN’s rigid, negative policies—potentially rendering the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus obsolete—and open up favorable diplomatic opportunities for Myanmar.

“There is a possibility that the original Five-Point Consensus could untangle. This can be viewed as a key achievement of President U Min Aung Hlaing’s current visit. After Malaysia, Indonesia’s stance may also soften, and if Singapore eventually softens its position, that would be the end of it. U Min Aung Hlaing can make use of the fact that this is the first positive approach from the ASEAN bloc, which has taken a tough stance toward Myanmar,” he said.

Following the consolidation of ties with ASEAN’s mainland nations—Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos—the resumption of engagement with maritime states like Malaysia marks a significant diplomatic step. Given the historical precedent of former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s support for Myanmar’s accession to ASEAN, and considering Myanmar’s geostrategic advantage of bordering the Indian Ocean, it is assessed that the country’s diplomatic position is poised to become increasingly robust.

“The lifeline of ASEAN countries is land connectivity. Without land connectivity, there would be no route to China or India. Myanmar also has significant advantages on the Indian Ocean side. Once Malaysia takes the lead, the Five-Point Consensus will no longer be effective, regardless of how it is interpreted. As a result, ASEAN may eventually have to invite Myanmar to upcoming summits,” Dr. Aye Maung said in his analysis.