Phyo Lin Aung (NP News)- Sept 29

In accordance with the fundamental principle of international relations that “In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests,” the relationship between Myanmar and the United States will not remain perpetually cold or tense. As long as Myanmar’s geographical location and abundant natural resources remain attractive to U.S. strategic national interests, the bilateral relationship will continue to experience twists and turns, with shifts in engagement occurring in one form or another. 

Particularly, the visit by U.S. officials to Nay Pyi Taw on September 16 to discuss the case of American citizen Adam Michael Castillo stands out as one of the most significant diplomatic engagements between the United States and Myanmar since 2021. Although neither side has officially disclosed which officials the U.S. delegation met or the specific details of their discussions during the nearly 24-hour visit, the fact that U.S. government officials personally traveled there to secure Adam Castillo’s release carries implications far beyond a routine visit. While the Castillo case may have been the primary reason for the trip, the broader context suggests there are likely underlying matters requiring negotiation and dialogue between the two nations.

A review of the history of Myanmar-U.S. relations reveals that engagement between the two countries has been virtually non-existent from 2021 through the period leading up to the 2026 elections. During this time, U.S. actions were largely limited to imposing targeted sanctions on military-linked businesses and Border Guard Force (BGF) leaders involved in online scam operations. Following the elections, however, Washington signaled a clear shift toward re-engagement with the aim of restoring normal relations with Myanmar. For instance, the U.S. Embassy announced the signing of a new agreement between U.S. exporters and Myanmar buyers to increase soybean meal exports to Southeast Asia; this move clearly indicates the government's acknowledgment of renewed economic engagement.

In addition, the U.S. State Department welcomed the visit to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), expressing hope that it would pave the way for regular access—including the provision of medical care. In a post on its X social media account, the U.S. State Department expressed hope that this development would pave the way for regular humanitarian access to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and broader access to all political prisoners, while also calling for her immediate and unconditional release. Furthermore, the State Department urged the Myanmar government to engage in dialogue to end ongoing conflicts, thereby signaling an acknowledgment of the government's peace negotiation efforts.

Furthermore, reports have circulated since around 2025 indicating that the United States has engaged in discussions regarding proposals to divert Myanmar’s abundant rare earth mineral production—preventing it from reaching strategic rival China—and instead secure the supply for itself. Although Myanmar remains included in a recently released presidential report concerning narcotics for the 2027 fiscal year, the document also notes that providing U.S. assistance to such nations is vital to American national interests; this suggests that the United States is moving toward a path of normal engagement with Myanmar to serve its own national interests.

Although a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department stated that Washington will continue engaging with various groups in Myanmar, the United States has notably taken concrete steps toward direct and official talks with Myanmar authorities in Nay Pyi Taw, despite ongoing sanctions. In practice, the deportation of Castillo functioned as a key catalyst for resuming U.S.-Myanmar relations. Ultimately, the U.S. could not ignore the need to engage with Myanmar— not only regarding human rights and democratic issues, but also due to critical geopolitical considerations, including great-power rivalry, rare earth minerals, and the Indo-Pacific strategy, as well as ASEAN cohesion. Myanmar, on its part, deported Castillo in accordance with the principle of bilateral goodwill, thus enabling both sides to make the first step toward a return to full diplomatic relations. 

Myanmar is not unfamiliar with U.S. diplomatic overtures. In 1993, Northern Command received the visit of World War II veterans who had served in Myitkyina. The Northern Command’s Deputy Commander-in-Chief, Vice Senior General Maung Aye, hosted the event. Another example was in 2002, when U.S. military and intelligence personnel arrived by plane at Bagan to discuss the recovery of the remains of an aircraft shot down during World War II. This illustrates that the U.S. has engaged diplomatically with Myanmar even while maintaining sanctions, which indicates that Myanmar should consider such gestures seriously when weighing its options.

Assessing the prospects for future developments, it is possible to suggest that although the U.S.-Myanmar relations are unlikely to undergo a complete reversal, they will gradually shift toward a course of “pragmatic engagement” based on mutual interests.

First, due to the need to counter China’s expanding influence and the requirement to address strategic issues in the region, including rare earth minerals, it will be difficult for the U.S. to avoid direct and behind-the-scenes dialogue with Nay Pyi Taw. Consequently, the U.S. will likely pursue a pragmatic policy of engagement with Myanmar to promote its interests in balancing China power and maintaining regional security.

Second, regarding sanctions, Washington will find it difficult to take overt, official steps toward full normalization until Myanmar releases political prisoners and engages in inclusive political dialogue, as the U.S. demands. However, since the U.S. is gradually moving away from sole reliance on the strategy of imposing sanctions and economic restrictions, it will likely adopt a more balanced approach to interacting with Myanmar, which will also consider its strategic interests.

Thus, despite lingering sanctions and ongoing demands for the release of political prisoners, U.S.-Myanmar relations are poised to evolve within the framework of pragmatic diplomacy and direct dialogue with Nay Pyi Taw. This realistic approach will enable the U.S. to achieve its strategic objectives in the region across the political, economic, and security spheres. –