By Phyo Lin Aung (NSS) - September 2 

As US President Franklin D. Roosevelt once said, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” Accidents are rare in the realm of politics and geopolitics. The recent attacks in southern Thailand were similarly the result of systematic planning by masterminds and creators. 

Geopolitical parallels between Sout­hern Thailand and Northern Rakhine

Thailand government confirmed that at least 51 attacks involving arson, shooting and the use of incendiary devices took place in the southern provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani on the night of August 22. The attacks left at least two people injured and several government properties, including a government building, a store and a stolen vehicle, were set on fire. A curfew has been imposed in Narathiwat province, where most of the attacks took place, and authorities are investigating the locations of the incidents, including telecommunications and electricity towers. It is not yet known which group is behind the latest attack, but last month five Thai soldiers were killed in an attack on a checkpoint in Narathiwat province.

More than 7,000 people have been killed in the southern border provinces of Thailand since 2004 amid an insurgency driven by separatist groups. Geographically, the provinces where the attacks took place border Malaysia. Furthermore, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), which is now operating under the banner of separatism, is made up of Malay-Muslims, suggesting strong cross-border ethnic and cultural ties.

This dynamic bears striking similarities to the situation in northern Rakhine State, Myanmar. On the one hand, ethnic populations originating from or linked to neighboring countries wage localized insurgencies, while on the other hand, they are portrayed to the world as stateless and oppressed by the central government. These are the problems caused by the neighboring diaspora. The reason behind the unrest in southern Thailand is not only to disrupt Thailand’s internal affairs but also to threaten the regional economic integration, as is the case in Rakhine State in Myanmar.

Myanmar, Russia, Thailand and the Dawei SEZ

In addition, the southern Thai issue is closely related to Myanmar’s “Dawei Deep Sea Port and Special Economic Zone Project”. Southern Thailand shares a direct land and sea border with southern Myanmar along the Malay Peninsula, so the Dawei project in southern Myanmar stands as a major regional project capable of transforming Myanmar into a vital manufacturing and transportation land bridge.

Currently, Myanmar has actively sought to revive the Dawei project with Russian investment. During his recent visit to Russia, President U Min Aung Hlaing discussed the project with President Vladimir Putin. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin also stated that Russian companies are considering participating in the project to boost trade and contribute to regional economic development.

The core of the Dawei Special Economic Zone includes a deep-sea port, a power plant, industrial zones, as well as transportation routes to Thailand. These developments will bypass the congested Strait of Malacca and create a trade corridor between the Indian Ocean and the Southeast Asian mainland, reducing cargo transport journeys by four to six days.

For Russia, the project will provide greater access to the Southeast Asian market and an economic foothold in the Indian Ocean region. In addition, if the LNG plant is built in Dawei, crude oil can be processed in Dawei and distributed more widely in the region. The newly discovered offshore blocks are only 45 kilometers away from Dawei, which will be a win-win opp­ortunity for all energy and investment sectors.

Therefore, in the current situation, Thai-Myanmar relations are intertwined and have reached their highest level. Even when some ASEAN countries are ostracizing Myanmar, Thailand invited the Myanmar president to discuss bilateral cooperation. The visit of the Thai foreign minister to Russia before the Myanmar president went to Russia, and the invitation of the Myanmar Commander-in-Chief to Thailand while the Myanmar president was in Russia, show that Myanmar-Thailand relations go beyond ordinary relations, and make it more obvious that there are economic ties between the three countries.

Geostrategic alternative to the Strait of Malacca

Amid growing tensions between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asia—including disputes over China’s nine-dash line in the South China Sea, the Taiwan issue, and tensions with the Philippines—the Strait of Malacca could face risks similar to those associated with the Strait of Hormuz, including the possibility of disruption or blockage.

In this context, the Dawei Special Economic Zone is viewed as more than a development project for Myanmar. According to an official who is familiar with the project quoted by The Statesman, it could become a strategically important initiative with the potential to reshape regional trade routes.

“This is not just for our country. Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, which lie along this route, can all benefit from these projects. Look at the situation in the world today. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. If the Strait of Malacca were to be closed, how would we cross the sea to the other side? Our location is very strategic. If the other side is closed, we can cross with railway and road routes here. With this project, we could unload the goods on this side and reload them on the other side, making it a route that takes only about 24 hours. Therefore, this project is not only for Myanmar. From our side, if we want to go to the Arab countries in the Middle East, India, or Europe, we can also pass through this location,” he said. 

In addition, the official pointed out that this economic corridor will not only connect the entire East-West global trade route, but will also bring comprehensive benefits to the countries in the region.

“If we want to go to Japan, Korea, the west coast of the United States, or the Philippines in the east, we can also pass through here. So, this project is beneficial to the whole world. That is why China refers to it as the ‘Southern Economic Corridor,’ meaning an economic corridor located in the southern part of the world. So, Myanmar people should not think too narrowly about it. This is a major international-standard project that can compete at the international level, and Myanmar will gain significant benefits from it. The two countries that will benefit the most are Myanmar and Thailand,” he said.

Regarding the structure of the project, the source explained in detail that it is a complete project as it systematically includes the deep-sea port and the power plant as well as basic industrial needs.

“This project has four main parts. One is the deep-sea port, where ships will come to the deep-sea port. From there, the goods will be unloaded. After completion, they will be transported by rail and then sent to Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. So the deep-sea port is one part. Since factories will be built to use this project, they need electricity. So the power plant is the second part,” he said.

In particular, the inclusion of oil refineries is expected not only to help meet domestic energy demand but also to create significant opportunities for attracting international investment into the economic zone, the source added.

“Refineries are needed to supply fuel for the ships that come here. They are also essential for Myanmar. At present, we have to purchase fuel from other countries, import it, and then sell it domestically. If we had our own refinery, fuel prices could be reduced by nearly half compared with current prices. Since the products would be produced domestically, costs would also be reduced. We could also sell fuel to international ships and export it to other countries. Therefore, having a refinery would be very useful.”

Similarly, he explained that investors from around the world would establish businesses across various sectors within the industrial zone, creating numerous employment opportunities.

“Another component is the Special Economic Zone. Factories and manufacturing facilities would be established there, including automobile assembly plants and garment factories. There have already been discussions about thousands of garment factories from Korea relocating here. Small and medium-sized factories are also expected to come. There could also be automobile assembly plants from Thailand, factories from Japan and Malaysia, and other multinational projects. So, it would be a project involving companies from many different countries.”

Conclusion

Overall, the recent spate of shootings and arson attacks in southern Thailand is not simply a domestic conflict, but a calculated and orchestrated attack on the regional geopolitical and economic landscape. The successful implementation of the Dawei deep-sea port and special economic zone would challenge the longstanding monopoly of the Strait of Malacca, directly threatening the strategic interests of major powers and economic groups that rely on the Strait.

Therefore, external actors opposed to the emergence of a new global trade route through the Dawei project may seek to prevent diplomatic and economic rapprochement between Myanmar and Thailand, two neighbors with high potential for collaborative growth. In this view, instigating security crises in Thailand's southern border areas could be part of a broader effort to hinder cooperation between Myanmar and Thailand and pressure both countries into delaying or abandoning the implementation of the Dawei Special Economic Zone. –